Globalno zagrijevanje / Global warming

Što je globalno zagrijevanje? / What is global warming?

U osnovi to je podizanje godišnje prosiječne temperature na nivou mora. Ta temperatura je prilično konsistentna iz godine u godinu i rijetko se značajnije mijenja.

In a nut shell it is rising of annual average atmospheric temperature at sea level. This temperature is consistent from year to year and rarely changes significantly.

Međutim primjećeno je da se u posljednjih 100ak godina ta temperatura iz godine u godinu povećava, nekih godina prosječna temperatura je viša, nekad niža ali kada se sve poredaju u niz, vidi se trend rasta.

But it was noticed in the last 100 or so years that this temperature is rising from year to the next, as seen at this graph. 

Ovo povećanje je naizgled minimalno i na prvi pogled nije toliko značajno, samo nekoliko djelova stepenau 100 godina. Onda zašto se oko toga diže tolika buka, u medijima, na internetu, svugdje se dosta govori o tome. Čak se poduzimaju i internacionalni napori da se ovaj trend zaustavi, poput recimo Kyoto Protokola.

This rise at the first glance seems small, only few fractions of a degree in a 100 years. Than why this trend is seen as so serious threat as everybody is speaking about it, in media, on internet etc, even requiring an international effort to combat, even sparking international agreements like Kyoto protocol. 

Neravnomijerno zagrijevanje različitih djelova svijeta.
Uneven warming on different parts of Earth.

Stvar je u tome da ovo zagrijevanje nije ravnomijerno, na nekim područjima planete ovaj porast se ne osjeća, na nekim područjima prosiječna temperatura čak opada dok na drugima je zagrijevanje puno izraženije. Iduća slika sasvim lijepo oslikava ovu situaciju.

The thing is that this rise in average temperature is not even between different parts of the World. In some parts of the world this rise is not noticeable, in some even is dropping, but in some it is rising at an much higher rate. See picture.

Ovo ima za posljedicu da se povećava temperaturna razlika između pojedinih područja što za uzvrat stvara veći gradijent atmosferskog pritiska između raznih područja stvarajući jače vijetrove, mjenjajući uobičajene obrasce vremena za data područja, mjenjajući oblačni pokrivač, količinu padavina, raspored i smjer vjetrova u pojedinim dobima godine i stvarajući ekstremnije vremenske uslove (češće oluje, obilne padavije ili duge suše i slično).

This causes bigger difference in temperatures between different parts of the world or much higher gradient of atmospheric pressure, causing stronger winds, much more extreme weather conditions and unpredictable weather patterns.

U stvari prije govorimo o promijeni klime nego o globalnom zagrijevanju, odnosno globalno zagrijevanje, ma koliko bilo naizgled minimalno u stvari drastično utiče na globalni raspored klimatskih uslova. Što je trend globalnog zagrijevanja veći to je promijena vremena ekstremnija, oluje ili suše češće i šteta od njih veća. Primjer je recimo i ova slika koja prikazuje oštećenja od ekstremnog grada.

In all respect we are not looking at severe global warming but at a Climate Change. Because of slight Global Warming the climate of our planet is changing, the weather patterns are becoming more unpredictable, storms are more frequent, droughts more extensive and severe, and damage to us from those more extreme.

Međutim ovo je minimalna šteta koja može nastati zbog ekstremnih vremenskih uslova, najgore štete nastaju tokom nepredvidljivih suša ili poplava koje uništavaju imovinu ili poljoprivrednu proizvodnju, smanjujući količinu raspoložive hrane, uništavajući ekonomiju i stvarajući žarišta zaraznih bolesti. Ovo su globalne neprilike i šteta na usjevima na jednom mjestu može izazvati glad na nekom drugom, koje ovisi od uvoza te hrane, uništavanje imovine narušava ekonomiju, smanjuje kupovnu moć građana i narušava efektivnost raznih usluga poput komunalne službe, medicinske pomoći ili transportnih usluga.

The damage shown in the picture is just a minimal part of overall danger we are in. The real damage occurs due to droughts, or floods or failed weather patterns like failed Monsoon or similar. All of this can damage the food production, damage property and cause economic depressions, not to mention the possible large loss of life. This difficulties are not local in nature but global, crop failure in one place can cause famine in another, the global trade can be (will be) damaged, plunging the World in another economic depression further damaging many services we depend on like medical services, municipal services, transports etc. 

Kako se nevremena i suše gomilaju, šteta je kumulativna i svi počinju osjećati pogoršanje uslova života, krize i nestašica postaju češće, a ljudi moraju ulagati više da bi održavali svoj nivo života ili bivaju primorani da promijene mjesto boravka. Ove migracije dodatno otežavaju situaciju pogoršavajući političke i ekonomske probleme, izazivajući veću netrpeljivost i sukobe.

As storms and droughts pile up, the damage is cumulative and all will start to feel deterioration of the life standard. Shortages and reduction in overall quality of life would become part of every day life and people would need to invest more and work harder to preserve equal quality of life, maybe even forced to emigrate to some more favorable location. Those migration would cause even more problems between nations, worsening even more the political and economic tensions, plunging many parts of the world in to repression and war.

Minimalna promjena srednje temperature atmosfere naše planete izazivaju velike promjene u životu svih ljudi na svijetu, veoma rijetko ili nikad na bolje.

Minimal change in global average atmospheric temperature mean large change in life of all the people, almost never to the better. 

Zašto se globalno zagrijevanje događa? / Why global warming occurs?

Za sve je odgovorna ravnoteža gasova u našoj atmosferi.

Atmosfera se sastoji od mnogih gasova koji svi imaju svoju ulogu u formiranju vremenskih uslova.

Evo sastava atmosfere:

Stability of our climate is affected by the chemical composition of our air (atmosphere). The composition of our atmosphere is complex and each part of it has its influence in to determining the climate. Here is the air composition:

Sastav atmosfere
Atmospheric composition

1. Azot 78.09%

2. Kiseonik 20.85%

3. Argon 0.93%

4. Ugljen Dioksid 0.039% (0.040% od veoma skoro)

5. Vodena para

6. Metan (količina varira sezonski)

7. Mnogi drugi gasovi u tragovima

1. Nitrogen 78.09%

2. Oxygen 20.85%

3. Argon 0.93%

4. Carbon Dioxide 0.039% (0.040% from recently)

5. Water vapor

6. Methane (the quantity varies seasonally)

7. Many other gases in trace quantities.

Od svih ovih gasova za kontrolu klime naše planete najodgovorniji su vodena para i ugljen dioksid ( od sada ću ga označavati njegovom hemijskom oznakom, CO2) koji djeluju poput termostata i svojim ciklusima u atmosferi regulišu temperaturu.

From all of this gases the most important to the climate are carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor, whom act as thermostats through their cycles controlling the global temperature.

Međutim za globalno zagrijevanje najodgovorniji  je CO2. Ovo se događa zbog zanimljive osobine CO2 da svojom molekularnom strukturom upija i zadržava infracrvene valove svijetlosti odnosno bukvalno zadržava toplinu. Ovo radi i vodena para ali za razliku od CO2 količina vodene pare je stabilna i ne utiče značajno na proces globalnog zagrijevanja, osim toga efektu staklenika kojeg proizvodi vodena para, često je suprotstavljen efekat oblačnog pokrivača koji efikasno odbija energiju sa Sunca.

For global warming the most responsible gas is CO2. This is because he acts as green house gas, accumulating irradiated heat from surface Earth which otherwise would disperse in to Space. Same function has the water vapor but amount of it in atmosphere is very stable and it is sometimes countered by cloud cover which reflects the Sun radiation very efficiently.

Zračenje sa Sunca ulazi slobodno u našu atmosferu, zagrijeva površinu koja tokom noći isijava prikupljenu energiju Sunca u obliku infracrvenih zraka nazad u svemir. CO2 zadržava dio tih zraka i oni se ne isijavaju nazad u svemir već zagrijavaju atmosferu držeći temperaturu iznad zamrzavanja vode. Ovo se ne događa ravnomijerno svugdje na planeti, negdje se zadržava više, a negdje manje energije, a ta razlika stvara vremenske promijene, cikluse kiše, vjetrove itd. Ovaj efekat se zove efekat staklenika.

The Suns radiation (the visible light and infrared wavelengths) freely enter through our atmosphere and heat the surface of the Earth, which, subsequently, during night irradiates this energy back to Space through infrared radiation. CO2 captures part of this radiation and keeps it in the atmosphere heating it and keeping the temperature above freezing point of water. This effect doesn't occur evenly around the globe, in some places more heat is captured and in some, less. This difference drives weather changes and dictates the climate. This effect is known as greenhouse effect.

Prirodno, količina CO2 je stabilna jer prolazi kroz ciklus koji obuhvata život na Zemlji, kišu, karbonatne stijene i tektonske poremećaje ali neću ulaziti u detalje jer taj proces zahtijeva poseban članak da bi se zadovoljavajuće objasnio. Negdje ću vijerovatno i to opisati ali za sada evo dvije prigodne šeme koja to objašnjavaju.

Usually the levels of CO2 are stable through long periods of time because its quantity is controlled through a natural cycle occurring which involves life, oceans and tectonic changes on our planet. This cycles are complex and deserve a separate blog entry for adequate explanation, for now here are two diagrams which somewhat explain those cycles.

Tektonski CO2 ciklus
Tectonic CO2 cycle

Biološki CO2 ciklus
Biological CO2 cycle

Ovo znači da je količina CO2 u atmosferi stabilna kroz duge periode održavajući temperaturu atmosfere u određenim granicama. Da ima premalo CO2 temperatura atmosfere bi previše pala i Zemlja bi se bukvalno smrzla, da ga ima previše temperatura bi bila prevelika i voda ne bi mogla postojati u tečnom stanju, površina bi bila vrela i suva pustinja.

This means that the amount of CO2 is stable through long periods of time, keeping the average temperature stable. If we had to little CO2 our world would froze, if we had it to much our world would be to hot for water to be liquid an surface would be a lifeless desert.

Ovdje sada postoji problem, u posljednjih 200 godina ljudska civilizacija je ušla u takozvano industrijsko doba. Izgrađene su fabrike i motorni transport, poljoprivreda je uzela industrijske razmijere, a broj ljudi je naglo porastao zbog blagostanja koje je nastalo ovom revolucijom u životu ljudi. Međutim sva naša tehnologija ovisi o energiji koju najviše dobivamo sagorijevanjem fosilnih goriva. Fosilna goriva su ostaci živih organizama koji su življeli milionima godina u prošlosti i čiji ostaci su bili zarobljeni tektonskim promijenama u dubinu zemlje. U stvari radi se o nuspojavi upravo CO2 ciklusa gdje je dio atmosferskog CO2 bio ukljonjen iz atmosfere kroz biološke i tektonske poremećaje pod zemlju. Sada mi taj CO2 ponovo oslobađamo nazad izgarajući fosilna goriva koja predstavljaju taj uklonjedi dio. Ovo povećava koncentraciju CO2 u atmosferi pojačavajući efekat staklenika i povećavajući temperaturu atmosfere koja izaziva promjenu klime. Prirodno, ta povećana količina CO2 će se ponovo stabilizirati a vrijeme ući u neku novu ravnotežu ali ne prije nego li dođe do drastičnih promijena koje mogu i zapravo ugrožavaju našu egzistenciju.

Now here lies the problem, in last 200 years our human civilization have entered in new era we call Industrial era. During this period which lasts to this day, we managed to build a whole new system of life, factories, transport and agriculture has gotten to industrial proportions, number of people have risen exponentially thanks to prosperity brought with industrial revolution. Problem lies with our energy requirements to keep our civilization going. Our major energy source at the moment is combustion of fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas) and by using it we emit large quantities of CO2 in our atmosphere, damaging the balance of this gas and increasing its quantity. All this CO2 was sequestered from atmosphere, millions of years ago, by living creatures which eventually fossilized in to the fuels we use now and were buried deep under ground. Now we are freeing all that CO2 back in to our atmosphere damaging the balance. Naturally the atmosphere will find a new balance but not before damage to our existence is done and who knows if the new balance would be beneficial to our species.

S druge strane da stvar bude gora, postoje i drugi gasovi koji imaju slični ili jači efekat od CO2. Na primjer metan (CH4) i CFC poput freona. Od ova dva gasa za efekat staklenika je odgovorniji metan jer količina CFC je premalena. CFC ima drugi puno gori efekat na atmosferu a to je uništavanje ozonskog omotača koji štiti površinu od smrtonosnog ultravioletnog zračenja sa Sunca, ali to je priča za neki drugi članak.

Evo mog Blog članka o ozonu: http://funestis.blogspot.com/2014/09/unistavanje-ozonskog-omotaca.html

On the other hand more potent greenhouse gasses exist, like Methane (CH4) and CFCs like Freon. From this two gases for greenhouse effect the most important to us is methane because quantity of CFC is to small to affect the climate. Unfortunately CFC has another devastating effect on our atmosphere as it is responsible for destruction of Ozone layer which protects the surface of our planet from deadly ultraviolet radiation. But with this problem i will tackle in another blog entry in the future.

Here is my Blog entry about ozone: http://funestis.blogspot.com/2014/09/unistavanje-ozonskog-omotaca.html

Metan se oslobađa uglavnom biološkim procesima, raspadanjem mrvih organizama ili metabolizmom. Taj gas ne opstaje dugo u atmosferi jer brzo oksidira zbog kiseonika i raspada se na vodu i CO2. Zato ga u atmosferi nikada nema previše, međutim zbog industrije danas se oslobađa višestruko veća količina ovog gasa nego što je to prirodno, kroz bušotine za naftu ili zbog poljoprivrede najviše kroz preradu ili uzgoj životinja. Ne samo to, globalno zagrijevanje izaziva i otapanje zaleđenih depozita treseta, daleko na sjeveru u tundri, najviše u Sibiru, Aljasci ili Kanadi. Ovo izaziva truljenje tih depozita zbog čega se oslobađa još više ovog gasa, u neku ruku jače zagrijevanje izaziva još veće oslobađanje gasa što izaziva još brže zagrijevanje.

Methane is mostly produced by biological processes on earth, by metabolism or by decomposition of dead biological matter. This gas is quite short lived in our atmosphere because it is easily broken down and oxidized in to water and CO2. Because of that there is not much of in in our atmosphere apart during some extreme occurrences.  One of those special cases is today, we produce a copious amounts of it through our drilling for oil, mining of coal and industrial farming of animals. Not only that, the rise of global temperature makes far north lands thaw faster during Summer, melting permanent frozen regions in tundra. Those permanent frozen regions mostly consist of permafrost which are mostly frozen plant remains which have stopped decomposing because of cold. Now all those remains have resumed decomposing after thousand of years piling up unchanged. All of this emits even more methane in to air rising the temperature even more and subsequently melting the permafrost even faster.

Kako spriječiti globalno zagrijevanje i promijenu klime? / How to stop global warming?

Na žalost to je sada nemoguće, jednom pokrenuta promijena klime se više ne može zaustaviti, i dokle sama klima ponovo ne dođe u ravnotežu ne postoji način da se proces zaustavi. S druge strane možemo spriječiti gore posljedice. Naime povećavanje količine CO2 stvara sve brže zagrijevanje što donosi sve ekstremnije klimatske promjene. U suštini moramo zaustaviti trend ispuštanja viška CO2 u atmosferu i dopustiti našoj atmosferi da ponovo dođe u ravnotežu.

Unfortunately for now this is impossible, once climate change has started there is no way to stop it and until the weather finds a new balance we are at mercy of enraged elements. on the other hand we can stop making it worse. Faster emission of CO2 means faster global warming which translate in more severe climate change. In the essence we need to stop or reduce carbon emission (carbon emission means emission of both CO2 and methane) in to the atmosphere.

Postoji nekoliko načina da se to uradi ali svaki nosi dosta velike ekonomske posljedice, zahtijeva radikalno restrukturiranje ljudskih zajednica i stvaranje čitavog niza novih tehnologija.

Several ways to accomplish that exist but all of them bring many changes to our life. Slower economic growth, developing of new technologies, more responsible resource management and changes in to our daily habits.

1. Smanjiti ispuštanje CO2 u atmosferu prelaskom sa fosilnih goriva na neki novi izvor energije, najpoželjnije u neki obnovljivi izvor poput energije vjetra ili upotrebom solarne energije.

1. Reducing our CO2 emission by shifting our energy needs from fossil fuels to some other energy source, preferably a renewing one like solar energy or wind energy.

2. Spriječavanje emitovanja CO2 u atmosferu ugradnjom filtera i uklanjanjem tog gasa na taj način (međutim postavlja se pitanje skladištenja i uklanjanja tog gasa)

2. Stopping the emission of CO2 by means of filtering and storage of excess of this gas. The problem with this option is the storage it self , where and how to do it.

3. Direktno uklanjanje CO2 iz atmosfere nekim fabričkim ili biološkim procesom, međutim i tada se postavlja pitanje uklanjanja i skladištenja.

3. Direct (industrial level) removal of CO2 from atmosphere. This method is the most complex and requires major extra energy consumption, Storage of CO2 is also a problem like with 2nd option.

Sve u svemu ako ubrzo ne poduzmemo nešto, čeka nas mračna budućnost obilježena nestabilnim i nepredvidljivim vremenim, uništenjem dobara i padom proizvodnje hrane. Glad, ratovi, ekonomske krize i pomori su sasvim vjerovatne posljedice globalnog zagrijevanja. U ovom slučaju svi smo direktno ugroženi, globalno i najbogatiji i najsiromašniji i žitelji naprednih gradova i plemena u džunglama, najrazvijenije države i najsiromašnije.

All in all, if we do not do something to counter this devastating trend, a very dark future awaits us, marked with unstable, unpredictable and extreme weather, accompanied with destruction of property, reduction of food production and unrest. Hunger, wars, economical disasters, mass migrations and appalling amounts of deaths through poverty, disease, conflict and starvation are our future if we do not act now. In this case nobody is protected, the richest and the poorest, the citizens of our bright cities and the dwellers of deep green jungles. 

Našu civilizaciju čeka velika proba opstojanja, a ključ tog opstanka leži samo u našim rukama.

Our civilization is now at its greatest test which will determinate if we deserve to call our selves civilized and thus inherit the Earth or we will degenerate back in to mindless primate foragers and than follow all great species of this planet in to darkness of extinction.

Linkovi / Links

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle

http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/

http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/