Prije par dana dogodile su se dvije snažne erupcije na Suncu, tačnije 9 Septembra grupa sunčevih pjega oznake AR2158 su eruptirale u ono što je ovogodišnja najjača prominencija u pravcu naše planete. Ove erupcije su klasifikovane kao X1.6 prema svojoj snazi. Postoji šansa od 85% da će glavnina mase erupcije pogoditi magnetosferu naše planete 12 Septembra odnosno sjutra (četvrtak).
Few days ago 2 strong eruptions on Sun occurred. On September 9th 2014 was observed (by satellites) a strong X class double Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and it is heading in our direction. There is 85% chance it will hit our planet tomorrow on 12th September.
Što možemo očekivati / What we can expect.
Efekat erupcije se je već osjetio na dan erupcije kada je visoku atmosferu pogodio val ultraviolenih i X zraka koje su ionizirale gornji sloj atmosfere remeteći HF komunikacije. S druge strane prema nama se sada kreće tvz Koronalni Izbačaj Mase koji se treba upravo sjutra sudariti sa našom magnetosferom.
The effect of this eruption has already been felt as a strong wave of UV light and X rays hit the upper atmosphere on 9th causing a 3 hours long disturbance in HF communications. On the other hand a large CME is heading toward us and predicted to collide with our magnetosphere tomorrow on 12th.
Ovo će izazvazi ponovo prekide u telekomunikacijama aurore na polovima, a kako se radi o relativno jakoj erupciji te aurore će možda biti vidljive i na nekim srednjim širinama. Osim toga ljudi koji se trenutno nalaze na velikim visinama će biti izloženi značajno povećanoj radijaciji kozmičkim zrakama, piloti, putnici u avionima i astronauti. Koronalna erupcija ove snage je potencijalno fatalna za astronaute bez zaštite, međutim na sreću ISS (internacionalna Svemirska Stanica) je propisno zaštićenja oklopom koji štiti astronaute od ovog zračenja tako da se očekuje da neće biti problema sa postojećom posadom. S druge strane mogu se očekivati problemi sa pojedinim satelitima koji će sigurno biti zaslijepljeni pojačanom radioaciom, oštećenja i kvarovi se mogu očekivati.
This will result again in some communication disturbances and strong auroras on both Poles and as it is a strong X class eruption we can expect some auroras to extend to mid latitudes. Also people working and traveling on high altitudes will experience a large increase in radiation (pilots, airplane travelers and astronauts). CME can be fatal to astronauts without protection. Fortunately astronauts located on ISS (international Space Station) are adequately protected by build in shielding designed to prevent most of the radiation exposure from CME. Unfortunately spacewalks will be out of the question tomorrow, more or less as you don't walk outside in a thunderstorm. Also we can expect some problems with our satellites, breaking of communications and malfunctions.
Sudar Koronalnog Izbačaja Mase (CME) sa našom magnetosferom može izazvati i Elektromagnetski Puls (EMP) koji može izazvati prekide u napajanju strujom i kvarove na električnoj mreži i električnim uređajima. U ovom slučaju ova sunčeva oluja je vijerovatno preslaba da izazive jači EMP koji može ugroziti naše uređaje. Međutim savijetujem da se tokom sjutrašnjeg dana nepotrebni uređaji ipak isključe, pogotovo oni vezani na električnu mrežu da bi se smanjilo opterećenje i samim time spriječe mogući ispadi koji mogu rezultirati većim kvarom naše dotrajale crnogorske električne mreže.
CME can produce a EMP pulse (Electromagnetic pulse) which could disrupt communications on surface and cut electricity in some regions and even cause malfunctions in electrical and electronic equipment, causing damage. But this one approaching does not seem to be powerful enough to cause a very strong EMP so only minor problems are expected. Still I suggest to all to disconnect all unnecessary electronic and electric equipment to reduce the load to our Montenegrin decrepit electrical grid to prevent loss of power and possible equipment failures.
Što je to Koronalni Izbačaj Mase / What is Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
Koronalni Izbačaj Mase je u stvari eksplozija naelektrisanih čestica sa površine Sunca (većinski protona). Tokom Sunčeve aktivnosti magnetsko polje Sunca biva iskrivljeno i izbija na površinu u obliku velikih petlju magnetskih silnica. Naelektrisane čestice (plazma) sa uzavrele površine naše zvijezde se penje uz te silnice stvarajući vidljive lukove i petlje koje mi zovemo prominencije ili protuberance. S vremena na vrijeme krivljenje tih magnetskih silnica je toliko jako da one bukvalno puknu izbacujući u Svemir pokupljenu plazmu. Taj izbačaj se kreće poput udarnog vala i može pogoditi okolne planete pa i Zemlju.
Coronal Mas Ejection is a sort of explosion of ionized particles (mainly protons) on the surface of the Sun. During Solar activity the Suns magnetic field is bent and distorted protruding through the surface out in to Space forming a wast arches of magnetic strings. The ionized particles follow those magnetic lines forming glowing arches we call Solar Prominence. From time to time the bending of magnetic field is so strong that they break, catapulting the ionized particles (plasma) in to space. Those travel outward at high speed in a form of shock-wave and can hit surrounding planets including Earth.
Najjači Koronalni Izbačaji (ovaj sjutrašnji Koronalni Izbačaj nije toliko jak i ne može izazvati drastičnu štetu koja se opisuje u daljnjem tekstu) mogu izazvati ogromnu štetu zbog naše ovisnosti o električnim uređajima. Ne samo da bi došlo do prekida napajanjem električnom energijom već bi došlo do čitavog niza kvarova u mrežu, čak i požara u električnim centralama, na dalekovodima, prekida i kvarova u telekomunikacijama (internet, mobilna telefonija, kablovska televizija, satelitske komunikacije, radio veze itd). Šteta bi se mogla mjeriti trilionima dolara a oporavak bi mogao biti dug i možda bolan s obzirom da bi mnogi gradovi bili gurnuti u dug period mraka i mnogi servisi ne bi radili ili bi radili minimalno kao npr, transport i medicinske usluge.
Zanimljivo je i to da se jedna takva erupcija dogodila u Julu 2012 ali je na sreću uvelike promašila Zemlju. Vijerovatnoća da se ovako nešto desi je relativno mala iako su takve erupcije dosta česte ali zbog ogromnog područja po kome se naša planeta kreće te erupcije voma rijetko nas mogu ugroziti (jednom u stotinjak godina)
The strongest CME´s can (important to note, this one is strong but not that powerful and can not cause such drastic damage as described in following text) cause huge damage to our electronic and electric equipment. Not only that they can cause wide spread of power failures but can also cause a severe breakdown of equipment, even cause fires due to sparking, wide disruption of communications and slowing or stopping of basic services. The damage could amount to trillion of dollars and recovery could be long and hard, especially in large cities whom massively depend on electricity to function. Interesting to note, one of those super powerful eruptions happen in June 2012 but missed the Earth by wide margin. Those events happen relatively often but because our planets orbit is so wide, those are very rarely affecting us and are just shots in empty space. Maybe one every 100 years can affect us directly.
Događaj u Karingtonu / Carrington Event
Najača zabilježena ovakva erupcija se dogodila u Septembru 1859 nazvana Događaj u Karingtonu (Carrington Event), X40 erupcija koja je spržila tadašnje morze komunikacije i stvorila aurore skoro do ekvatora. u to doba šteta nije bila prevelika jer je najveći dio čoviječanstva još uvijek bio ruralan, a industrijska revoluvija je tek počinjala o električnoj struji se govorilo tek kao o modernoj zanimljivosti. međutim da se Događaj u Karingtonu dogodi danas, u doba elektronike, posljedice bi bile katastrofalne, najveći dio svijeta bi izgubio električno napajanje, možda i više mjeseci dok se svi kvarovi ne poprave, mnogi uređaji bi se jednostavno zapalili stvarajući (možda) požare, sve postojeće službe bi jednostavno bile blokirane a komunikacije koje ovise o električnoj energiji bi zamuknule. Na svu sreću erupcije tipa Događaja u Karingtonu su jako rijetki, možda jednom u 500 godina pogode našu planetu (mada se često događaju na Suncu ali obično u pravcima koji nas se ne tiču).
The strongest eruption ever recorded affecting our planet happen in September 1859 and it is called Carrington Event. It was estimated that it was caused by X40 Sun flare. The effect was a complete disruption of early wire communications (Morse telegraph) even causing small fires in that era telegraph offices. The auroras were visible as far south as Tahiti. The overall effect on people of that era was not that severe, most people wouldn't notice it and only minor discomfort by rich people whom were not been able to send theirs telegrams for few days.
Today it is a very different story, a Carrington Event type of disaster would be crippling to our civilization, dependent heavily on electricity. Our world would crumble before our eyes, electricity would cut off, wide spread malfunctions and even fires would erupt everywhere, living in the cities would be near impossible as all services would brake down. Fortunately Carrington Event class of flares are very rare, maybe one in 500 years (although this is just a wide estimate as we do not have enough data to be sure).
Postoji i jedan TV film B produkcije koji se bavi ovim tipom katastrofe, a zove se upravo Carrincton Event: evo trailer-a koga interesuje.
There is even a TV B production movie which describes one such event in modern times named appropriately Carrincton Event, here is a trailer for interested people.
Što oznaka X1.6 znači? / What that X1.6 means.
Ova oznaka označava veličinu i snagu erupcije kroz fluks X zraka kojeg ta erupcija vrši na udaljenosti naše planete, odnosno broj vati produciranih X zracima po kvadratnom metru (W/m2). (tabela je preuzeta sa Wikipedije). Brojka pokraj slova označava stotinke podjele pošto same oznake obuhvataju pojas fluksa kao se vidi u skali. Sama skala se bazira na instrumentima na satelitu GOES koji je između ostaloga zadužen za mjerenje fluksa X zraka.
This is adopted nomenclature to express the power of such event. The letter X (or other) is indication of the X-ray flux this flare is dishing out at the distance of our planet from Sun or power in Watts per square meter (W/m2) done by X-rays. (this table has been copied from appropriate Wikipedia article). The number near the letter indicates the parts between scales as every letter indicates a range of values as seen in the table. The scale is based on the detector range of a GOES satellite.
| Classification | Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometre |
|---|---|
| (Watts/square metre) | |
| A | < 10−7 |
| B | 10−7 - 10−6 |
| C | 10−6 - 10−5 |
| M | 10−5 - 10−4 |
| X | 10−4 - 10−3 |
| Z | > 10−3 |
Trenutno stanje stvari / Present state of things
Trenutno ne postoji organizovana odbrana od ovakvih događaja. Ne samo to, većina vlada u svijetu ne shvata ovu prijetnju ozbiljno, a mnogi ni ne znaju o čemu se radi.
At the moment there is no appropriate defense against such an event. Not only that, most of world governments do not consider this as a priority, in fact many of them do not know this danger actually exist.
Postoje službe koje prate ove događaje poput NASA-e ili ESA-e koje obaviještavaju javnost o eminentnosti ovakvih događaja. Za sada se ovakav događaj može predvidjeti do oko 2 ili 3 dana unaprijed jer je Sunce pod konstantnom prismotrom čitave flote satelita i svemirskih sondi.
Websiteovi poput Spaceweather obaviještavaju javnost o ovakvim događajima čim se primjete na Suncu. Ovaj site takođe daje i relevantna obaviještenja o NEO asteroidima i ostalim događajima u bliskom nam Svemiru.
Websites like http://spaceweather.com/ keep the public regularly informed as soon as such event occurs. This site also gives other informations about NEO asteroid passes and other interesting data about nearby Space.
Real time praćenje događaja na Suncu je takođe dostupno kroz SOHO (Opservatorija Sunca iSunčeve Heliosvere) website koji daje podatke sa ovog satelita u trenutku kada su primjećeni. http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/
Takođe tu je i SDO (Solarna Dinamička Opservatorija) na čijem siteu takođe postoji realtime feed. http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Međutim sve ovo su samo elementi ranog upozorenja dok prava fizička odbrana ne postoji.
But all those are just elements of early warning system, the real physical defense is almost non existent.
 |
| Ova slika nije vezana za CME već se radi o požaru transformatora koji je izbio zbog drugih razloga, međutim CME bi mogao imati sličan efekat. This picture does not show a CME event, it is a transformer fire caused by other cause, but CME could have similar effect. |
At the moment the only viable defense is shutting down the power grid and equipment just before arrival of such CME. The public should be noted through media and advised to turn off their equipment and gadgetry and prepare to go through this few hours of CME affecting our planet.
Drugi vid odbrane bi bila uspostava rezervnih pogona u slučaju da dođe do kvara na glavnim uređajima. Rezervni transformatori i generatori, dvostruke električne linije, antene itd. Međutim ovakav pristup je jako skup i potrebno je volje i vremena da se uspostavi.
Second level of defense would be to build a secondary reserve complement of important equipment to switch on if main gear fails. Reserve generators, transformers even power-lines should be in place and on standby. But this approach is vastly expensive and probably not an option in near future for most world governments.
Today the only adequate defense is already build in grounding system which is incorporated in most of electrical system to prevent lightning strike damage or induction damage. But this system can only mitigate some of the damage.
Zaključak / Conclusion
Ovakva prijetnja je dosta ozbiljna iako se radi o rijetkom događaju. Potencijalna šteta je neprocijenjiva, a kako naša civilizacija upravo zavisi od naše elektronike, svijetske vlade bi ovu prijetnju trebale shvatiti ozbiljno i organizirati neki vid službe koja bi imala za zadatak da upozori i organizuje javnost tokom ovakvoh događaja te izgraditi potrebnu infrastrukturu koja bi bila zadižena da minimalizira efekte.
This kind of threat is severe enough to take it in to account regardless it is a rare occurrence. Potential damage could be catastrophic as our civilization is heavily dependent on electricity. World governments should consider this threat seriously and organize some form of office to asses, prepare, inform and prepare the public during such events. They should also consider all different possibilities of building an appropriate infrastructure to prevent or minimize the effects of such events.
Ovaj događaj je u stvari prirodna nepogoda i mi se trebamo odnositi prema tome na taj način, kao što planiramo u budućnost, recimo odbranu od poplava, gradeći nasipe i ustave, tako moramo planirati i odbranu od ove neprilike. Naši djedovi sa ovom prirodnom nepogodom nisu imali veze, nisu ni znali da se događa, međutim mi danas smo i te kako osjetljivi na ovaj vid nevremena. Nadam se da u budućnosti ćemo se pripremati prema ovome kao što se danas pripremamo za poplave, oluje ili zemljotrese.
Those evens are in fact type of natural disasters like floods or earthquakes and we should act accordingly. We build flood protections to prevent flooding and there is no reason to not do the same to prevent this type of natural disaster. Our forefathers weren't affected by this type of natural calamity but today we are because of our dependence on electricity. In the future we should consider to act as we act when we plan toward other natural disasters.
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